After VAT: The Independent Schools Census 2025/26 — Mosaic
Mosaic Data Report · 2026

After VAT: The Independent Schools Census 2025/26

The sector-wide analysis for marketing teams, admissions leads, heads and governors.

2,497 schools560,255 pupils2020/21–2025/26DfE SPC underlying data
01

The State of the Sector 2025/26

The 60-second read. What changed this year, and why it matters.

Pupil Numbers — Change Each Year

Headline Trend · 6-Year
Schools rising, pupils falling

It's the Established Schools Losing Pupils

Like-for-Like
Established schools — total pupils
02

Age

The strategic backbone — where pupils are, and where they're heading.

This Year — What Changed

Pupils
Schools

Six-Year Trend

Trend

Cross-Section — Phase by Region

Phase Mix by Region
03

Gender of School

Single-sex education under acute pressure.

This Year — What Changed

Pupils
Schools

Six-Year Trend

Trend

Cross-Section — Conversions to Co-Ed

Conversions per Year (from Boys' / from Girls')
Outcome After Conversion (school count)

Conversion Deep Dive — What Predicts Success?

04

Boarding

The boarding cliff, located by region and phase.

This Year — What Changed

Pupils
Schools

Six-Year Trend

Trend

Cross-Section — By Region & Phase

Boarding Over Time
05

Denomination

A predominantly secular sector with a small, stable faith segment.

This Year — What Changed

Pupils
Schools

Six-Year Trend

Trend
06

School Size

The lopsided sector — two-thirds tiny, a handful vast.

This Year — What Changed

Pupils
Schools

Six-Year Trend

Trend
07

School Age & Resilience

Are long-established schools weathering the downturn better than newer ones? Not anymore.

This Year — What Changed

Pupils by Era (25/26)
Schools by Era (25/26)

Six-Year Trend — The Resilience Reversal

Pupil Roll by Era (like-for-like)
08

Regions

Where the pressure is greatest — and a profile of any region.

This Year — Regional Risk Read

Composite Exposure
Most Exposed Regions
Pupils by Region (25/26)
Schools by Region (25/26)
09

Region Deep Dive

Pick a region for the full breakdown — age, gender, boarding, denomination, size, era.

Total Pupils

Age

Pupils by Phase (25/26)
Phase Trends (6-Year)

Gender

Pupils by Gender (25/26)
Gender Trends (6-Year)

Boarding

Boarders vs Day (25/26)
Boarders Trend (6-Year)

Denomination, Size & Era

Pupils by Denomination (25/26)
Pupils by Size Band (25/26)
Pupils by Establishment Era (25/26)
10

Sector Churn

Why more schools has meant fewer pupils.

This Year — What Changed

Six-Year Trend

Schools Opened vs Closed per Year

Closures vs New Entrants — Side-by-Side Breakdown

Closures by Size (2021–2025)
New by Size (2025)
Closures by Boarding Status (2021–2025)
New by Boarding Status (2025)
Closures by Phase (2021–2025)
New by Phase
Closures by Denomination (2021–2025)
New by Denomination (2025)
Closures by Region (2021–2025)
New by Region (2025)
Closures by Establishment Era (2021–2025)
Net Schools Added (Opened − Closed)
11

Know Your Competitors

This report is the sector. Radar is your street.

"I shouldn't swear in an email but… absolutely bloody brilliant."

— a marketing & admissions director, the first time they opened Radar

What Radar Shows You — A Quick Demo

Market Position · Illustrative
Enrolment growth vs your competitor set (24/25 → 25/26)
Live Intelligence · Illustrative
What Radar pulls together, per competitor
Book a Radar demo →

mosaic-tools.com/radar

12

What This Means for September

Tailored to your school. Select your profile to filter.






Methodology